Minnetonka, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

902
FXUS63 KMPX 031132
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
532 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures continue to warm back to near-normal.

- An Arctic front Wednesday brings another shot of light snow,
  along with gusty winds and well-below zero wind chills.

- Temperatures warm again to end the week, with above-normal
  values expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

Today...Southwesterly winds will gradually increase as the
broad area of high pressure slides south and a Canadian low
progresses southeast towards the northern Great Lakes region.
This will allow temperatures to climb roughly 5 to 10 degrees
warmer than yesterday, yet still 5 to 10 degrees below average
for early December.

Wednesday through Thursday...Winds will shift out of the northwest
as the strong cold front approaches Wednesday morning. A broad area
of light snow and lingering flurries is possible along this Arctic
fropa. Forecast soundings across the area show that saturation
will be a limiting factor for snow potential, however as we`ve
seen recently... if saturation maximizes within the DGZ, it is
still possible to overcome dry air near the boundary layer!
Expect that to be the case for areas that are able to see snow
at the surface, otherwise dry air will most likely win out. The
latest trend brings the best snow chances right around the
morning commute, so be weary of travel impacts with temperatures
remaining near or below zero and a fresh layer of snow/ice on
the ground from yesterday.

Temperatures will plummet behind the front, reaching the single
digits by Wednesday night. Gusty northwest winds will also develop
on Wednesday, with 35 to 45 mph expected and isolated gusts up
to 50 mph possible. For reference, the latest 00z HREF gives
much of the region at least a 90% chance for gusts greater than
35 mph, 60% for gusts greater than 40 mph, and 15% for gusts
greater than 45 mph. Putting all this together, the entire
region will get to enjoy wind chill values around 10 to 20
degrees below zero overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.
The northwest winds will thankfully diminish throughout the day
Thursday as high pressure sets in again, however highs will
likely only reach the single digits or teens with continued CAA.

Friday through Monday...Southerly flow returns on Friday and
will persist through the weekend, allowing temperatures to
potentially reach the 40s by Sunday. Some long range models are
hinting at a potential system developing out of the Rockies
early next week, but this will likely be in flux depending on
how the northwest flow aloft and our series of clippers to the
north play out throughout the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024

MVFR ceilings continue to gradually lift from west to east this
morning, primarily impacting the western Wisconsin sites through
14-15z. A mix of mid to upper level clouds will remain in place
for much of the region until MVFR stratus builds south behind
our frontal passage tomorrow morning. Southwesterly winds will
shift out of the northwest and become gusty by Wednesday
afternoon. There is a chance for -SHSN after the front rolls
through, but confidence is low for how widespread it will be.
Most locations will only see flurries, but some pockets of MVFR
visibilities are possible where heavier showers set up.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED PM...MVFR. Scattered flurries. Wind NW 20-25G30-40 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts. &&

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED